Belgian Stability Programme

2008-2011

The budgetary consequences of population ageing

As stipulated by the law on the Ageing Fund, the Study Committee on Ageing updates its estimate of the budgetary cost of ageing once a year. This estimate serves as a basis for the government when drawing up its policy on ageing. According to the June 2007 report by the Study Committee on Ageing, social expenditure is expected to increase by 4.4% of GDP between 2006 and 2030 and by 6.2% between 2006 and 2050. The Study Committee's projections differ from those of the AWG⁽¹⁾ . On the one hand, they are slightly more recent (2007 rather than 2006) and, on the other hand, there are also differences in terms of methodology. The AWG's projections put the emphasis on international comparability, while the Study Committee on Ageing tries to take maximum account of national policy measures and the specific features of Belgium's social security system when compiling its forecasts.

TABLE 10 Budgetary impact of population ageing
% of GDP	2006	2010	2020	2030	2050	2006-2030	2006-2050
	Study Committee on Ageing
Pensions	8,9	9,1	10,5	12,5	13,4	3,6	4,5
Health care	7,0	7,7	8,4	9,2	10,5	2,2	3,5
Other social security expenditure	7,0	6,7	6,3	5,6	5,2	-1,5	-1,8
Of which:
Incapacity	1,2	1,3	1,3	1,1	1,0	-0,1	-0,2
Unemployment	2,1	1,9	1,7	1,2	1,1	-0,9	-1,0
Early retirement	0,4	0,4	0,4	0,4	0,4	0,0	0,0
Other sectors	1,6	1,6	1,6	1,6	1,6	0,0	0,0
Social security expenditure	22,9	23,5	24,0	27,3	29,1	4,4	6,2
P.m. remuneration of teaching staff	4,0	3,8	3,7	3,6	3,7	-0,5	-0,4