For the period 2009-2011, the economic context to
which this programme refers is that set out in the medium-term forecasts
drawn up by the Federal Planning Bureau in October 2007, albeit with a
few small adjustments.
Since these forecasts are not particularly
recent, a number of elements on which they were based are no longer
completely up to date.
The international context used in the Federal
Planning Bureau’s forecasts was based on the OECD’s medium-term
projections from May 2007. A number of basic assumptions made at the
time are now out of date. For example, it had been assumed that the
average price of oil would be 74.98 dollars for a barrel of Brent in
2008, and that the euro exchange rate would stabilise at 1.39 dollar
between 2008 and 2011. In the January 2008 Economic Budget, the
corresponding assumptions were $89.48 per barrel of Brent and 1.44
dollar to the euro.
Since these medium-term forecasts were drawn up,
growth prospects for the year 2008 have been revised downwards from 2.1%
to 1.9% in January’s Economic Budget. Price developments have been
changed too.
As a result, and especially as regards the year
2009, the medium-term outlook used in the programme is more of a
consistent macroeconomic reference framework that is quite plausible for
a prescriptive exercise where the details still need to be fine-tuned,
than actual forecasts in the strict sense.
